Thursday 9 December 2010

Pieces for Peace? I don't know, really


The human race is becoming more and more intolerant. This, clubbed with the new feeling of empowerment and independence, is playing out in bemusing ways, on the Governance and International Relations scene. The DPRK now has the gall to stand up to the PRC; the small island states sprinkled across the four oceans that were traditionally US allies, are now opposing its climate change policy. The ugly face of this intolerance, though, is the effect it's having on the World Map. Any sign of civil conflict, and everyone's waiting to tear the country to bits. They want an Azad Kashmir. They got a Kosovo, and a Timor Leste. Darfur Now. What next?

My honest opinion, of the entire referendum concept, is that it breeds, and in a sense provides validation to this intolerance. The SPLA/M never saw eye-to-eye with the Sudanese Government, so they just split? Snowball that idea, and you'll soon have India divided into three new countries - the Red, the Orange, and the third part will simply be Palmed Off, because three parties had conflicting interests, and they tried to sort it out, but failed.

Speaking of conflict. That's the excuse they're using. I'm not denying that the human rights violations in Sudan are anywhere near acceptable, or that the quickest solution need be sought to end what is almost a deja vu of Nazi Germany.

But the question I'm asking here is, will the split, if it happens, really solve a problem?


Look at any population density map of Sudan. Apart from the evident density around that beautiful city that is Khartoum, practically ALL of Sudan's native population, now lives in Southern Sudan. So when the split happens, what we're looking at, is a rich, now smaller, less dense state, with an image of having done everything by the book, and a small, new, dense state, with a reputation to reckon with. Either that, or you have all of that AND a mass-migration (as happens with most of these questions of division) to boot.

Now apart from that, the war that ravaged the county is heavily dependent on labour from neighbouring Egypt, Algeria and the Middle East, for skilled and semi-skilled work. It is rather evident, that these workers will now move to the North, and the South will be left with trained warriors.

Many World leaders, and now myself, have questioned the validity of this move. South Sudan will turn into a hotbed for criminal activities. They wont' be well to do, most of them will have ruthlessly served in a rebel military, and as a state, they epitomize this intolerance that I speak about. Add to that, an object of intense envy, buttressing them up North. And you have a recipe for disaster.


The basic question I'm asking is simple:

Have they recovered sufficiently from the genocide, to be prepared for a plebiscite?

There's always going to be conflicting views on this conflict, and this here is mine. I'm no trained prescient, so Que Sera Sera.

Peace Out.

1 Comments:

Poorna Omprakash said...

Yay, your blog's back. :)